Republican Senate swing-state shutout leads Polymarket pricing despite probability decline
Action Network reports Polymarket's market on which Senate swing states Republicans will win prices the None outcome, Republicans winning none of them, as the likeliest result at a 34 percent implied probability, down from 38 percent a day earlier, with Iowa the next outcome at 10 percent followed by an Iowa and Kansas combination bracket.
According to Action Network, Polymarket traders assign the highest implied probability to Republicans winning none of the Senate swing states covered by its market. The “None” outcome stands at 34 percent.
That makes it the leading individual outcome, but not one priced as more likely than all other possibilities combined.
Leading outcome loses ground
The Action Network update, published Nov 3, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, puts that outcome below its 38 percent implied probability a day earlier—a decline of 4 percentage points.
Iowa ranks next at 10 percent, followed by a bracket combining Iowa and Kansas. The supplied summary does not give a probability for the Iowa and Kansas combination or identify every state included in the market.
What it means for prediction markets
- Rank is not a majority forecast: The 34 percent price makes “None” the largest individual outcome, not an implied majority-probability result.
- The leader has weakened: Its decline from 38 percent shows a shift away from the Republican shutout outcome over the preceding day, even as it retains first place.
- Coverage matters: These prices concern the swing-state outcomes defined by this market, not overall Senate control. The incomplete list of states and prices limits broader conclusions.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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- https://www.actionnetwork.com
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Action Network”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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