Polymarket’s volume share shrinks as US exchange revises incentive programs
DeFi Rate figures cited by Gaming America put Polymarket's two exchanges at 17.2 percent of combined face-value volume, down from 93.8 percent in October 2024. Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and 26 reworking seven deposit, rebate and referral programs, including a deposit-and-trading program paying up to 2,000 dollars in credits from November 9.
Polymarket’s two exchanges accounted for 17.2 percent of combined Kalshi and Polymarket face-value volume in the 30 days before October 29, according to Gaming America, citing DeFi Rate figures.
That compares with 93.8 percent in October 2024. The figures show a substantial shift in the distribution of volume between the two operators, though they measure face-value activity rather than revenue or user numbers.
US incentive programs undergo revisions
Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and 26, according to Gaming America. The filings reworked seven programs covering deposits, rebates and referrals.
Among them was a deposit-and-trading program offering up to 2,000 dollars in credits from November 9. That scheduled start falls after the volume measurement window, so the reported 17.2 percent share does not capture activity under that forthcoming offer.
What it means for prediction markets
- The denominator matters: The 17.2 percent figure represents Polymarket’s share of combined Kalshi and Polymarket face-value volume—not its share of every prediction-market venue.
- Incentives are a separate development: The nine amendments document changes to seven programs, but the supplied figures do not establish their effect on trading volume.
- November 9 is a follow-up point: Subsequent volume data could help assess activity after the deposit-and-trading credits become available, without necessarily establishing that the program caused any change.
Sources & attribution
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