Polymarket's SI.gov launch market prices Oct. 31 at 84%

October 31 leads the supplied market snapshot

Polymarket’s market on when SI.gov will launch, opened Oct. 7, puts the Oct. 31 outcome at 84% and Oct. 15 at 54%, according to the supplied summary dated Oct. 13, 2026, at 9:54 AM ET. The contract concerns the rollout of a government website, with traders weighing both launch timing and what will qualify as a completed release.

The supplied Polymarket page lists different prices: 40 cents for October 15 and 63 cents for October 31. Those figures do not match the summary’s percentages, and the provided material does not establish when the page’s prices were recorded. The two sets of readings therefore should not be treated as a verified price move.

A registered domain is not enough

According to Polymarket, executive orders in late September 2026 formalized a U.S. government terminology change from “AI” to “Super Intelligence” (SI). The Executive Office of the President secured si.gov on October 1, after the related America.gov portal launched and AI.gov received updates. That sequence has drawn trader attention to whether an official SI.gov website will follow.

Settlement depends on more than the domain’s existence. According to Polymarket, SI.gov must provide an operational official government website that the public can access; redirects, temporary holding pages and error screens do not qualify. October announcements and transfers from existing platforms are potential catalysts. Polymarket also identifies security, content and infrastructure requirements as sources of delays in historical government website rollouts.

What it means for prediction markets

• The qualifying event matters: Domain registration alone does not satisfy the stated launch criteria.
• The price discrepancy limits interpretation: The summary’s 84% and 54% readings differ from the page’s 63-cent and 40-cent prices. Without aligned timestamps, they do not establish a trading trend.
• The deadlines are not mutually exclusive: A qualifying launch by October 15 would also precede October 31, so the two deadline readings should not be interpreted as competing outcomes whose probabilities must total 100%.
• Implementation is the key uncertainty: Announcements or platform migrations may signal progress, but the contract requires a functioning public website.