Ceasefire chances of 88 percent through midterms plunge to 25 percent by December

Ceasefire odds diverge by deadline

Polymarket traders put the probability of the US-Iran ceasefire remaining in place through the November 3 midterms at 88 percent, according to TradingView. For December 31, the odds fall to as low as 25 percent.

The pricing reported on Oct 31, 2026 points to a sharp distinction between expectations for the immediate election period and those for the end of the year.

Warning focuses on post-election risk

According to TradingView, the pricing followed Senator Chris Murphy’s warning that President Trump could resume military action against Iran after the election. The warning described a possible outcome, not a confirmed decision.

The available summary does not establish how much prices changed after Murphy’s comments or whether his warning drove the pricing. It also does not provide the contracts’ precise resolution rules.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline matters: The 88 percent probability through November 3 and the figure as low as 25 percent by December 31 reflect substantially different expectations across the two time horizons.
• Timing is not causation: The pricing followed Murphy’s warning, but the supplied reporting does not establish a causal link.
• Contract details remain a limitation: Without resolution rules, readers cannot determine exactly what events would count as the ceasefire ending.