Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31 priced at 7.3% on Polymarket, down 2.3 points, on $208K traded

Polymarket priced the prospect of Perim Island no longer being under Houthi control by October 31 at 7.3%, with $208K traded, in the supplied October 18, 2026 update. The contract was down 2.3 percentage points, placing it among the day’s declining markets.

The summary also gives a 10.4% price on Oct. 16. That earlier reading and the latest price represent a different comparison from the reported 2.3-point daily decline; the two should not be treated as the same measurement period.

A lower price, without an identified catalyst

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares prices over 24 hours, drawing directly from Polymarket and Kalshi and updating every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 18 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC.

The outlet ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Its stated universe covers 1,990 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that could otherwise dominate the rankings as settlement approaches.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied source extract explains the scanner’s methodology but does not include a Perim Island entry, contract-resolution terms or reporting on a specific development behind the decline. The price, movement and trading figure therefore come from the supplied headline and summary, rather than a visible market card in the extract.

The repricing indicates a lower market-implied probability for the contract’s stated outcome. It does not independently establish conditions on Perim Island, and the $208K trading figure alone does not establish order-book depth or explain why the price moved.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome remains priced as unlikely: the latest supplied probability is 7.3% for the October 31 deadline.
• Comparison windows matter: the reported 2.3-point decline is distinct from the change since the 10.4% reading on Oct. 16.
• The catalyst is unverified: the provided material supports a report of repricing, not a conclusion about territorial control or the cause of the move.