Strait of Hormuz transit calls above 60 priced at 36% on Kalshi

Kalshi traders priced a 36% chance that the seven-day average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls would exceed 60 before July 1, 2027, in the Oct 18, 2026 update published at 1:24 PM ET. The probability rose 2 points, with $1.6M traded.

A modest upward repricing

The increase indicates a shift toward the threshold being reached, although the market still priced that outcome below 50%. The contract concerns a seven-day average, rather than a single day’s transit calls.

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market-movers tracker measures changes over 24 hours in probability points, not relative percentages. Its supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 18 Oct 2026 at 17:10 UTC, and the tracker refreshes every 15 minutes.

What the available data establishes

Predictionbubbles.net draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks eligible markets by the absolute size of their probability changes. Trading volume provides context but does not affect that ranking.

The supplied source excerpt does not include the individual Hormuz contract listing, settlement details or an explanation for the move. The headline and summary provide the 36% price, 2-point increase and $1.6M traded figure; the available material does not establish what prompted the repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• The averaging condition matters: The stated trigger is a seven-day average above 60 before July 1, 2027—not merely one day above that level.
• The move is a price signal: A 2-point increase records a change in market pricing, not confirmation that transit activity has increased.
• Volume has limits as evidence: The $1.6M traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied material does not identify its measurement period or establish current liquidity.
• Settlement specifics remain unavailable: The excerpt does not identify the transit-data provider or the contract’s detailed resolution rules.