Patrick Mahomes win the MVP priced at 3.0% on Kalshi, down 5.0 points, on $1.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Mahomes MVP contract among its downward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has zero hits in…
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Patrick Mahomes’ MVP contract on Kalshi was priced at 3.0%, down 5.0 probability points, with $1.3M traded, in the supplied update published Oct 26, 2026 · 1:54 AM ET. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the downward moves in its sports category.
The move represents a lower market-implied probability of Mahomes winning the MVP. The supplied material does not identify a sporting development or other catalyst behind the decline.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares probabilities over 24 hours, refreshing venue-sourced prices every 15 minutes. The supplied page records its venue-data snapshot as 26 Oct 2026, 05:38 UTC and covers markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
The board ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. Mahomes’ 5.0-point decline therefore describes the change in the contract’s implied probability—not a 5.0% relative fall. Trading volume provides context but does not determine the ranking.
Scope and limits
PredictionBubbles says the board ranks across 2,036 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; resolved markets and those without a day-old baseline are omitted.
The supplied source excerpt explains that methodology but does not display the Mahomes contract’s individual card. Its 3.0% price, 5.0-point decline and $1.3M traded figure come from the supplied headline; the material does not establish the volume’s measurement period or provide contract-specific liquidity or settlement details.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is repricing: The decline records a shift in the market’s assessment, not an independently verified change in Mahomes’ prospects.
Volume and liquidity are different: The $1.3M traded figure provides activity context, but does not establish how much trading drove this particular move or how deep the order book was.
The catalyst remains unverified: Without contract-specific news or a price-history breakdown, the supplied material cannot explain why traders marked the probability lower.