Pakistan wins priced at 74.0% on Kalshi, up 31.0 points, on $2.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' sports board lists the Pakistan win contract among its most-traded sports markets, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has zero…
Pakistan’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at a 74.0% market-implied probability, up 31.0 percentage points, with $2.3M traded, according to the supplied Oct 25, 2026 · 1:09 PM ET snapshot. PredictionBubbles lists the contract among the most-traded markets on its sports board.
A sharp move, with limited event detail
PredictionBubbles defines its probability-change measure as movement over the preceding 24 hours. The reported increase therefore represents a substantial shift in traders’ pricing of a Pakistan victory, rather than a measure of trading volume.
The supplied material does not identify Pakistan’s opponent, the sport, the fixture date or the contract’s settlement conditions. It also provides no event-specific explanation for the price change, limiting what can be concluded about the reasons behind it.
Where the contract sits
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports page tracks 620 open markets, including 223 from Kalshi and 397 from Polymarket, with data refreshed every 15 minutes. Its embedded visualization displays the 300 largest markets by volume, while the full board covers all 620.
The site distinguishes rankings based on total traded volume from those based on absolute probability movement over 24 hours. At its last refresh, PredictionBubbles identified the Polymarket contract on whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship as the most-traded sports market, with $35.4M traded.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price is not a result: The 74.0% figure reflects exchange traders’ pricing of a Pakistan win, not a confirmed outcome.
- Movement and volume measure different things: The 31.0-point rise captures a change in implied probability; the $2.3M figure represents total reported trading, not necessarily activity during that move.
- Timing matters: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
- Contract details remain essential: Without the fixture and resolution rules, the supplied information does not support a precise comparison with other Pakistan-related markets.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/sports/
Date & time:
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