OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 priced at 5.9% on Polymarket

OpenAI was priced at a 5.9% market-implied probability of having the best AI model at the end of December 2026 on Polymarket, with $237K traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 25, 2026, at 6:24 PM ET.

That price puts the OpenAI outcome well below an even chance. The material supplied does not include competing companies’ prices or the criteria that determine which model qualifies as “best.”

Reading the snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its technology-market tracker aggregates prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes its data every 15 minutes. Trading on the venues is continuous, so the published snapshot is not necessarily the latest available price.

The tracker distinguishes total trading volume from probability changes over the previous 24 hours. The $237K figure therefore describes trading activity, not the direction or magnitude of any recent shift in OpenAI’s odds. No market-specific 24-hour change was supplied.

The definition matters

According to predictionbubbles.net, related questions across venues can have different wording and resolution rules. Without the rules for this contract, the 5.9% price cannot be treated as a broader assessment of OpenAI’s overall competitive position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Low implied likelihood, not a settled outcome: The 5.9% snapshot reflects pricing for a specific end-of-December 2026 question.
• Volume is not momentum: $237K traded does not establish whether sentiment toward OpenAI has recently improved or weakened.
• Resolution criteria are essential: The supplied material does not identify the benchmark or process used to select the “best” model.
• Timing limits comparisons: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, while the underlying markets trade continuously.