OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 priced at 6.0% on Polymarket, down 8.5 points, on $380K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers and tech boards list the OpenAI-specific Millennium contract among their downward tech moves, in a tech category distinct from the lead. It has…
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The Polymarket contract asking whether OpenAI will announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 was priced at 6.0%, down 8.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $380K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ market listing.
PredictionBubbles placed the OpenAI-specific contract among declining technology markets on its movers and tech boards. The supplied material identifies the repricing but provides no underlying announcement or reporting that explains the drop.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks markets by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than their relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking, according to the outlet.
The supplied movers snapshot recorded venue prices on 26 Oct 2026, 18:18 UTC. PredictionBubbles refreshes the board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, and excludes markets without a valid 24-hour comparison.
What the price does—and does not—show
The 6.0% reading reflects a low market-implied probability for the specific OpenAI announcement by the stated deadline. It is not evidence that a mathematical result has been established or rejected, and the wording “another” does not independently verify any earlier solution.
The $380K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth or identify what drove traders to reprice it. The decline therefore documents a change in market expectations, not a confirmed change in OpenAI’s progress.
What it means for prediction markets
The move is in points: The 8.5-point decline measures the change in implied probability, not an 8.5% relative fall.
The event is narrowly defined: The contract concerns an OpenAI announcement by December 31, 2026, rather than AI mathematical progress generally.
The catalyst remains unclear: Neither the trading figure nor the movers ranking establishes why the price fell; the supplied material also does not include detailed resolution criteria.