Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election priced at 75% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $185K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Chow contract among the day's upward moves ahead of the Oct. 26 vote, in a political/election category distinct from the lead —…
Olivia Chow’s contract to win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election was priced at 75% on Polymarket, up 3.5 percentage points, with $185K traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 18, 2026, at 3:09 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the day’s upward movers ahead of the Oct. 26 vote. The price reflects traders’ implied probability of a Chow victory, rather than a polling result.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours in probability points, not relative percentages. The 3.5-point rise therefore describes the change in the contract’s implied probability, rather than a 3.5% proportional increase.
The outlet’s movers board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 18 Oct 2026, 07:18 UTC, and covers 2,044 markets that remain live longer than 14 days. Markets without a valid 24-hour comparison are excluded.
What the figures do—and do not—show
The supplied material does not identify a poll, campaign development or other event behind Chow’s repricing. PredictionBubbles notes that market moves can reflect news, orders in thin markets or traders responding to one another; the listing alone does not establish which explanation applies here.
The $185K traded provides activity context, but the supplied update does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. PredictionBubbles ranks movers by the size of their probability change, without adjusting that ranking for volume or liquidity.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction: The 75% price and 3.5-point increase indicate a higher market-implied probability of a Chow victory over the comparison period.
- Timing: The Oct. 26 vote is the relevant upcoming electoral event; the quoted price is a snapshot, not a fixed forecast.
- Evidence limits: Neither the price move nor the $185K traded establishes its cause or shows how much trading would be needed to move the contract again.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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