Jeremiah Smith win the Heisman Trophy priced at 48% on Kalshi, down 7 points, on $2.2M traded

Jeremiah Smith’s Kalshi contract to win the Heisman Trophy was priced at 48%, down 7 probability points, with $2.2M traded, according to the supplied market headline published Oct 18, 2026, at 4:09 AM ET. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among the day’s declining sports markets.

The move reflects a lower market-implied likelihood of a Smith victory. The supplied material does not identify a specific development behind the decline or provide prices for competing Heisman candidates.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares prices over 24 hours and ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Trading volume provides context but does not affect a market’s position in the movement rankings.

The board covers Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes using prices from the venues. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 18 Oct 2026, 08:19 UTC—later than the headline’s publication time—so the two timestamps should not be treated as one observation.

What the board establishes

PredictionBubbles says its ranking universe comprises 2,043 markets lasting longer than 14 days, with same-week fixtures excluded. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; the displayed table contains the top 150 of 418 markets moving at least one probability point.

The supplied page text explains that methodology but does not reproduce Smith’s individual market entry. The 48% price, 7-point decline and $2.2M traded therefore come from the supplied headline, while the summary establishes his inclusion among the downward movers. The material does not specify the period covered by that trading figure.

What it means for prediction markets

• The signal is a repricing: Smith’s contract moved lower, but the available reporting does not establish why.
• Volume and liquidity are different: The $2.2M traded figure adds activity context; it does not establish current order-book depth.
• Timing matters: The headline and board snapshot carry different timestamps, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.
• The competitive picture is incomplete: Without other candidates’ prices, the material cannot establish Smith’s relative standing in the Heisman market.