Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election priced at 62.5% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $339K traded

Olivia Chow’s contract to win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election was priced at 62.5% on Polymarket, down 4.5 probability points, with $339K traded, in the Oct 25, 2026 · 7:54 AM ET update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared on its movers and politics boards. The decline represents a lower market-implied probability of a Chow victory, although the price remained above 50%.

Reading the move

PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours and refreshes its rankings every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied board snapshot records venue data read on 25 Oct 2026, 11:40 UTC.

The board ranks contracts by the absolute size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine a contract’s position in the rankings, according to PredictionBubbles.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied material does not identify a poll, campaign development or other event behind Chow’s decline. It therefore establishes a change in pricing, not the reason traders revised their assessment.

The $339K traded figure adds context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It should not be treated as confirmed 24-hour turnover or as evidence of current order-book depth.

What it means for prediction markets

• Chow remains priced above an even chance: The 62.5% reading signals a market-implied probability, not a guaranteed election result.
• The decline is 4.5 probability points: It is not a 4.5% relative decrease.
• The catalyst remains unestablished: The available evidence does not connect the repricing to a specific political development.
• Volume and liquidity are different measures: The $339K traded figure alone cannot establish how much trading would be required to move the price.