Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 priced at 15.0% on Polymarket, up 2.5 points, on $774K traded

Polymarket’s contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 was priced at 15.0%, up 2.5 probability points, with $774K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 25, 2026, at 8:39 AM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability, although the price still puts a public appearance well below an even chance.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points, rather than relative percentage gains. Its supplied snapshot drew venue prices on 25 Oct 2026, at 12:10 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.

The scanner covers Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks eligible contracts across 2,023 markets that run longer than 14 days. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine the movement rankings, according to PredictionBubbles.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the Khamenei contract’s rise or provide its settlement criteria. It also does not specify the reporting period for the $774K traded figure. That limits what can be concluded about the catalyst, trading intensity or evidence required for a qualifying public appearance.

What it means for prediction markets

• The direction changed, not the basic outlook: a 2.5-point rise leaves the contract at 15.0%, still pricing the appearance as unlikely.
• Turnover is not liquidity: the $774K traded figure alone does not establish order-book depth or how much trading accompanied the latest move.
• Resolution details remain important: without the contract’s settlement rules, the supplied material cannot establish what would count as being seen in public by December 31.