Year-end oil contracts imply higher prices as WTI nears $102.36
PredictMarketCap's oil dashboard, updated November 1, counts 1,099 oil markets with 15.25 million dollars in total volume and shows WTI crude near 102.36 dollars. The December 31 strike ladder prices 115.01 dollars or above at 45 percent with 2.17 million dollars traded on that strike, and the distribution mean sits near 119 dollars.
PredictMarketCap’s oil dashboard shows WTI crude near $102.36, with its December 31 strike ladder assigning a 45 percent probability to a price of $115.01 or above, according to PredictMarketCap.
Oil market snapshot
The dashboard, updated November 1, counts 1,099 oil markets and $15.25 million in total trading volume. The supplied snapshot was published Nov 1, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET.
The $115.01-or-above strike accounts for $2.17 million in traded volume. That figure measures activity at this particular threshold, rather than across the full December 31 ladder.
Reading the year-end distribution
According to PredictMarketCap, the distribution mean is near $119, above the dashboard’s current WTI reference. That mean and the 45 percent probability describe different aspects of the pricing: one summarizes the distribution, while the other concerns a single threshold.
The supplied figures do not include the remaining strike probabilities or contract settlement terms. They therefore offer a limited view of how traders are pricing the range of possible year-end outcomes.
What it means for prediction markets
- The $115.01-or-above contract is priced below an even chance at 45 percent, despite the distribution mean sitting near $119.
- The $2.17 million traded at that strike should be distinguished from the $15.25 million recorded across all 1,099 oil markets.
- Without the full ladder and settlement terms, the snapshot does not establish how probabilities are distributed around the mean or precisely how the contracts resolve.
Sources & attribution
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