Smith gains ground as North Carolina House market prices Democratic flip
Polyguana reports Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. leads the North Carolina 3rd district House market at 73.7 percent against Republican Greg Murphy at 25.2 percent, a 42.8 point move in 24 hours with 134,300 dollars traded in the last day. The board prices the seat as a Republican to Democratic flip.
According to Polyguana, Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. led the North Carolina 3rd district House prediction market at 73.7 percent, compared with 25.2 percent for Republican Greg Murphy.
The report, published Nov 3, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET, recorded a 42.8-point move toward Smith over 24 hours.
Market favors a change in party control
The board priced the seat as a Republican-to-Democratic flip, according to Polyguana. Smith’s lead represented the market’s assessment, not a reported election result.
Trading totaled 134,300 dollars in the last day. The supplied summary did not identify what drove the shift or provide vote-count information against which to assess the pricing.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 73.7 percent pricing for Smith versus 25.2 percent for Murphy put a Democratic flip ahead of a Republican hold on the board.
- The 42.8-point move in 24 hours marked a substantial change in market expectations.
- The reported 134,300 dollars in daily trading provides activity context, but the summary does not establish the cause of the repricing or confirm the electoral outcome.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polyguana
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
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