Greg Murphy takes prediction-market lead in North Carolina’s 3rd district
Polyguana reports Republican Greg Murphy has moved to 67.9 percent against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. at 31.5 percent in North Carolina's 3rd district, reversing an earlier live read that had Smith Jr. ahead 54.5 percent to 44.9 percent. About 487,500 dollars has traded in the market in total, with 222,300 dollars today.
Republican Greg Murphy has overtaken Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. in the prediction market for North Carolina’s 3rd district, according to Polyguana. Its Nov 3, 2026 update, published at 11:15 PM ET, put Murphy at 67.9 percent and Smith Jr. at 31.5 percent.
A reversal from the earlier reading
The earlier live reading favored Smith Jr. at 54.5 percent, with Murphy at 44.9 percent. The latest figures therefore show a change in the market’s favored candidate, rather than merely a narrowing of the gap.
The supplied summary does not identify what prompted the reversal or provide vote-count information. The percentages describe the prediction market, not reported election results.
Trading activity
According to Polyguana, about 487,500 dollars has traded in the market in total, including 222,300 dollars today. Those figures provide context for the market activity but do not establish why traders shifted toward Murphy.
What it means for prediction markets
- Murphy’s move from 44.9 percent to 67.9 percent marks a substantial repricing of the Republican’s prospects.
- Smith Jr.’s decline from 54.5 percent to 31.5 percent underscores that an earlier market lead can reverse.
- The reported prices and trading totals do not, on their own, establish the election outcome or explain the shift.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polyguana
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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