Smith’s North Carolina market lead shrinks as Murphy approaches parity
Polyguana reports Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. has eased to 54.5 percent against Republican Greg Murphy at 44.9 percent in North Carolina's 3rd district, down from 73.7 percent in an earlier live read. The market has moved 39.4 points in 24 hours, with about 446,600 dollars traded in total.
According to Polyguana, Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. stood at 54.5 percent against Republican Greg Murphy at 44.9 percent in the prediction market for North Carolina’s 3rd district. The update was published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:30 PM ET.
A smaller advantage for Smith
Smith’s latest probability was below the 73.7 percent recorded in an earlier live reading, according to Polyguana. That represents a decline of 19.2 percentage points between the two snapshots.
The latest figures put Smith 9.6 percentage points ahead of Murphy. Smith remained the market favorite, but the pricing indicated a substantially less decisive advantage than his earlier reading.
Movement and trading activity
Polyguana reported a 39.4-point market move over 24 hours, alongside approximately $446,600 in total trading volume. That daily movement is a separate measure from the decline between Smith’s earlier live reading and the latest snapshot.
The supplied summary does not identify what drove the repricing or provide vote-count information. The figures describe market probabilities, not a reported election result.
What it means for prediction markets
- The lead has narrowed: Smith’s 54.5 percent probability versus Murphy’s 44.9 percent leaves a 9.6-point gap.
- Timing matters: The earlier 73.7 percent reading and the Nov 3, 2026, 10:30 PM ET update show how materially the market assessment changed between snapshots.
- Volume is not confirmation: Approximately $446,600 traded in total provides activity context, but does not establish the outcome or explain the reported 39.4-point move over 24 hours.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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