No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 96.9% on Polymarket

Polymarket traders priced the outcome of no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 96.9%, according to PredictionBubbles’ finance board. The reading places substantial market weight on a year without cuts, but it answers a different question from contracts tied to an individual Fed meeting.

October markets favor unchanged rates

For the October 2026 meeting, PredictionBubbles listed Polymarket’s no-change outcome at 86.5% and an increase of 25 bps at 12.5%. Those prices distinguish between holding rates steady and raising them; either outcome is separate from the broader question of whether any cuts happen during 2026.

Kalshi’s related October 2026 contracts showed a 0bps increase at 88.0% and a 25bps increase at 12.0%, according to PredictionBubbles. Both venues therefore favored unchanged rates for October, while assigning a smaller probability to an increase.

A price snapshot, not a policy forecast

PredictionBubbles says it refreshes prices every 15 minutes, drawing from 2131 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. The figures are market-implied probabilities derived from traded contracts, rather than assurances about the Fed’s eventual decisions.

The supplied board excerpt does not provide contract-specific trading volume, liquidity or 24-hour changes for these Fed markets. It therefore establishes the displayed price levels, but not how recently traders reached them or how much trading supports them. It also supplies no December contract price for comparison.

What it means for prediction markets

• Contract scope matters: The 96.9% annual no-cuts outcome should not be treated as an October or December meeting forecast.
• No cuts does not mean no changes: A rate increase is distinct from a cut, so the annual contract and October’s hike contracts address compatible possibilities.
• Venue comparisons need care: Polymarket and Kalshi display related October questions, but their individual settlement rules remain important when interpreting the prices.
• Conviction has limits: Without contract-level activity and price-history figures in the supplied excerpt, the strength and direction of recent repricing cannot be established.