Nicolas Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 priced at 79.0% on Kalshi

Kalshi’s market on whether Nicolas Maduro will be Venezuela’s head of state on Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 79.0%, down 3.0 probability points, with $1.0M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 25, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET.

The decline leaves the outcome favored by the market, but indicates a lower implied probability than before. The supplied material does not identify a political development or other catalyst behind the change.

Reading the repricing

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker compares prices over 24 hours and ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points—not relative percentage changes. It draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes.

The source page lists a venue-data snapshot of 25 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC, later than the supplied update’s publication time. Its reproduced text explains the tracker’s methodology but does not include a Maduro-specific entry, so it does not independently confirm the headline figures at that later snapshot.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The 3.0-point decline signals reduced market confidence, while the 79.0% price still favors Maduro being head of state on Dec 31, 2026.
• Volume is context, not an explanation: The reported $1.0M traded does not establish why prices moved or reveal order-book depth.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The material supports a report of repricing, not a conclusion about a specific change in Venezuela’s political outlook.