Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 priced at 33.0% on Polymarket, down 6.5 points, on $1.2M traded

Polymarket’s contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 was priced at 33.0%, down 6.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $1.2M traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the December-dated contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category.

The figures accompanied an update published Oct 25, 2026, at 4:39 PM ET. PredictionBubbles lists its underlying venue-price snapshot as 25 Oct 2026, 20:16 UTC, and says it updates the board every 15 minutes.

A repricing, without an identified catalyst

The decline indicates a lower market-implied probability of ceasefire continuation through the contract’s December 31 deadline. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the move, so it does not establish why traders changed their pricing.

The $1.2M traded provides activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It also does not provide order-book depth or the contract’s detailed resolution criteria—limits that matter when interpreting both the price change and precisely what outcome traders are assessing.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares Polymarket and Kalshi contracts by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine the rankings.

The snapshot covers 1,988 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; resolved markets and those too new to have a comparable earlier price are excluded. The ceasefire contract’s appearance therefore signals a measured repricing, not an independently verified change in the ceasefire’s status.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 33.0% price and 6.5-point decline show traders assigning less probability to continuation through December 31 than they did 24 hours earlier.
• Activity versus depth: The reported $1.2M traded does not, by itself, establish current liquidity or explain the move.
• Evidence limits: Without an identified catalyst or detailed settlement rules, the price shift should not be treated as confirmation of a ceasefire breach or a forecast that one will occur.