Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 priced at 81.2% on Polymarket, up 5.4 points, on $3.8M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Maduro leader contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category alongside the lead. It has zero hits…
The Polymarket contract on whether Nicolás Maduro will be Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026 was priced at 81.2%, up 5.4 probability points, with $3.8M traded, in the supplied Oct 27, 2026 · 8:24 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward moves in its political/election category.
A higher price, without an identified catalyst
The move reflects a higher market-implied probability over the previous 24 hours. The supplied material does not identify a political development or news report explaining the change, so it does not establish why traders repriced Maduro’s prospects.
The $3.8M traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied contract details do not specify its measurement period. It should therefore not be treated as the amount traded during the 24-hour price move, nor as a measure of available liquidity.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers page draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot records venue data read on 27 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC. Rankings use the absolute change in probability points over 24 hours, rather than relative percentage changes.
The board covers 2,029 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Its table displays the top 150 of 504 markets that moved at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking.
What it means for prediction markets
- The signal is a repricing: The 81.2% price shows how the contract was valued at the reported moment, not confirmation of who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026.
- Magnitude and activity are separate: The 5.4-point increase measures the change in implied probability; $3.8M traded does not establish how much activity drove that change.
- The explanation remains unverified: Without an identified catalyst or contract-specific liquidity details, the supplied material cannot distinguish a news-driven reassessment from other trading effects.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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