NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026 priced at 90.6% on Polymarket, up 14.3 points, on $295K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the NVIDIA largest-company contract among its upward finance moves, in a finance category distinct from the lead. It has zero hits…
The Polymarket contract asking whether NVIDIA will be the world’s largest company by market capitalization on October 31, 2026 was priced at 90.6%, up 14.3 probability points, with $295K traded, in the October 27, 2026 update published at 8:39 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward-moving finance markets on its movers board. Its placement signals a substantial change in traders’ pricing, rather than evidence that NVIDIA’s market-cap ranking has already met the contract’s condition.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points, not relative percentage gains. The board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 27 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC.
The ranking covers 2,029 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-old price comparison qualify. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine a market’s position in the ranking.
What the snapshot leaves unanswered
The supplied material does not identify a news event behind NVIDIA’s repricing or provide current company market capitalizations. It therefore supports a report about a shift in prediction-market expectations, not an explanation of the underlying equity-market developments.
The $295K traded figure is also distinct from available liquidity. Without order-book information or the contract’s detailed settlement criteria, the snapshot alone cannot establish how easily traders could transact at the displayed probability or precisely how the October 31, 2026 outcome will be determined.
What it means for prediction markets
- A strong implied favorite: The 90.6% price reflects a high market-implied probability, not a guaranteed outcome.
- A sizable repricing: The 14.3-point rise measures the change over 24 hours; it is not a 14.3% relative increase.
- Context remains limited: The reported $295K traded adds activity context, but does not establish market depth or explain the move.
- The dated condition matters: The question concerns NVIDIA’s ranking on October 31, 2026, rather than its standing at the time of the snapshot.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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