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US-Iran meeting odds fall as November deadline comes into view

PredictionBubbles' movers board, on its Nov. 1 live read across 2,132 open markets, lists the diplomatic-meeting contract among the day's biggest down movers at 25.0%,…

Diplomatic contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on whether the next senior diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran will occur by November 30, 2026 was priced at 25.0%, down 11.5 points, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board.

The supplied headline lists $140K traded on the contract. The item was published on Nov 1, 2026 · 3:24 AM ET.

A market move, not a diplomatic update

PredictionBubbles identified the contract as one of the day’s largest downward movers in its Nov. 1 live reading of 2,132 open markets.

The supplied material contains no explanation for the decline or update on diplomatic scheduling. It establishes a change in market pricing, rather than a reported development in US-Iran talks.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 25.0% price reflects a lower market-implied likelihood of a qualifying meeting by November 30, 2026, following an 11.5-point decline.
  • The $140K traded provides activity context, but the supplied material does not specify the trading period.
  • No source links or contract-resolution criteria were provided, limiting assessment of what would qualify as a senior diplomatic meeting.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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