Newest Kalshi listing: Andrea Guerrieri wins at 60% on $3K, created about an hour ago

Guerrieri contract enters the board at 60.0%

A newly listed Kalshi market on Andrea Guerrieri winning showed a 60.0% implied probability and $3K in traded volume in the supplied Oct 13, 2026 · 7:54 PM ET snapshot. The summary identified it as the board’s newest market, created roughly an hour before that edition.

Resolution was approximately 14 days away. The supplied material does not identify the underlying competition, an opponent or the contract’s settlement conditions, limiting what can be concluded beyond the initial price and trading activity.

An early price, with limited context

According to predictionbubbles.net, its board covers 2132 open markets from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes prices every 15 minutes. Its newest-market view orders listings by their appearance, rather than by volume or probability movement.

The $3K figure measures trading that has taken place, not the liquidity currently available or the value of positions still open. Predictionbubbles.net distinguishes those measures, an important qualification when assessing how much support an early price has.

The 60.0% reading places a Guerrieri win above an even chance in market pricing, but it is not an independently established probability. No Guerrieri-specific price history or probability change appears in the supplied material, so the snapshot does not establish whether traders have become more or less confident since listing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Treat this as an initial snapshot: The listing was roughly an hour old, with $3K traded; those figures alone do not establish a durable pricing consensus.
• Settlement details remain a key gap: The approximate 14-day resolution horizon does not identify the event or the conditions required for a winning contract.
• Separate price from momentum: A 60.0% implied probability describes the quoted outlook, but the supplied information does not show a directional trend.