Gendebien favored in market for open Republican-held New York seat
Polyguana reports Democrat Blake Gendebien leads Republican Anthony Constantino 71.5 percent to 28 percent in New York's 21st district, an open Republican-held seat. The market has moved 51.5 points in 24 hours.
According to Polyguana, Democrat Blake Gendebien is priced at 71.5 percent in the market for New York’s 21st district House race, ahead of Republican Anthony Constantino at 28 percent.
The figures appeared in a report published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:30 PM ET. They reflect prediction-market pricing, not a reported election result.
Open seat draws a sharp market move
The contest is for an open Republican-held seat. A Gendebien victory would therefore shift the district from Republican to Democratic control.
Polyguana reports a 51.5-point market move over 24 hours. The supplied summary does not specify the direction of that move, its starting price or what prompted it.
What it means for prediction markets
- The reported pricing favors Gendebien to flip the seat, while Constantino’s 28 percent price leaves a Republican hold as a meaningful possibility.
- The 51.5-point move indicates substantial repricing within 24 hours, but the summary provides no basis for attributing it to a particular development.
- These figures are a dated market snapshot; they do not establish who won the race.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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