Gallant leads LaLota in market pricing for New York House seat
Polyguana prices Democrat Chris Gallant at 63 percent in New York's 1st district against Republican Nick LaLota at 29 percent, a flip the board ranks among the day's larger House moves.
Democrat Chris Gallant was priced at 63 percent in New York’s 1st district, compared with 29 percent for Republican Nick LaLota, according to Polyguana. The figures appeared in an update published Nov 3, 2026 · 10:45 PM ET.
Market favors a change in party control
The pricing put Gallant ahead of LaLota in the market for the House seat. A Gallant victory would flip the district from Republican to Democratic control, according to Polyguana.
Polyguana’s board placed the prospective flip among the day’s larger House moves. The supplied summary did not include earlier prices or the size of the change for either candidate.
Pricing leaves questions open
Gallant’s quoted probability exceeded LaLota’s by 34 percentage points. The two figures totaled 92 percent; the summary did not explain the remaining probability or provide further details about the market.
These figures describe market expectations rather than an election result. The supplied material contained no vote totals or race call.
What it means for prediction markets
- Gallant’s 63 percent pricing made him the market favorite over LaLota at 29 percent, according to Polyguana, but did not establish the outcome.
- The board’s ranking signals a notable House-market move, though the absence of earlier prices prevents quantifying that shift.
- The unexplained gap between the combined candidate probabilities and 100 percent limits interpretation of the quoted market.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polyguana
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
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