Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel priced at 7.0% on Polymarket, down 5.5 points, on $4.4M traded

Naftali Bennett’s Polymarket contract to become the next Prime Minister of Israel stood at 7.0%, down 5.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $4.4M traded, in the supplied Oct 27, 2026 · 2:24 AM ET update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the downward moves on its political/election movers board. The supplied material does not identify a news event or other catalyst behind the decline.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than their relative percentage changes. Bennett’s 5.5-point decline therefore describes a change in the market-implied probability, not a 5.5% relative fall.

According to predictionbubbles.net, the board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 27 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC.

Scope and limits of the snapshot

The board covers 2,048 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify for the rankings; the displayed table contains the top 150 of 539 markets that moved at least one probability point.

Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking, according to PredictionBubbles. The $4.4M figure supplied for Bennett’s contract is labeled as traded volume without a specified period, so it should not be read as the amount traded during the decline.

What it means for prediction markets

• The signal is a lower price: the 7.0% reading reflects a reduced market-implied probability for Bennett, not an independently established forecast.
• The cause remains unverified: the supplied material documents the repricing but provides no explanation for it.
• Volume is not market depth: the $4.4M traded figure alone does not establish how much liquidity was available or how much trading drove the 24-hour move.