Susan Collins win the 2026 Maine Senate election priced at 42.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 points, on $1.1M traded

Susan Collins’ contract to win the 2026 Maine Senate election was priced at 42.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 probability points, with $1.1M traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The contract appeared among the board’s upward political moves.

The figures accompanied an update published Oct 27, 2026, at 2:39 AM ET. PredictionBubbles listed its underlying venue snapshot as 27 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC, and said it refreshes the board every 15 minutes.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point change over 24 hours, rather than their relative percentage gain or loss. Collins’ increase therefore represents a 3.0-point repricing, not a 3.0% relative rise.

The board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks across 2,048 markets that remain live for more than 14 days. It excludes same-week fixtures and requires open contracts to have a valid 24-hour comparison. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the movement ranking.

What the snapshot leaves unresolved

The supplied material does not identify a poll, campaign development or other event behind the Collins move. It also does not specify the period covered by the contract’s $1.1M traded figure or provide its order-book depth. The snapshot establishes a higher market-implied probability, but not the cause of that change.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: Collins’ price rose, but at 42.0% the contract still assigned her victory a probability below 50%.
• Volume is not depth: The $1.1M traded figure provides activity context, but does not establish how much buying or selling the market could absorb without moving.
• The ranking measures repricing: Placement among upward political movers reflects a 24-hour price change, not independent confirmation of improved electoral prospects.