Forstag gains market edge in Montana’s open Republican-held House seat
Polyguana reports Democrat Sam Forstag leads Republican Aaron Flint 71 percent to 29 percent in Montana's 1st district, an open Republican-held seat. The market has moved 24 points in 24 hours.
Democrat Sam Forstag has a 71 percent market probability of winning Montana’s 1st district, compared with 29 percent for Republican Aaron Flint, according to Polyguana.
The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:30 PM ET, places Forstag ahead in the market for an open Republican-held House seat.
A sizable shift in pricing
Polyguana reports that the market moved 24 points in 24 hours. The supplied summary does not specify the direction of that move or either candidate’s earlier probability.
The current pricing favors a Democratic flip. Those probabilities describe the market’s assessment, however, rather than a reported vote tally or confirmed election outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- A flip is favored, not settled: Forstag’s 71 percent probability puts him ahead, while Flint’s 29 percent leaves a Republican hold as a meaningful possibility.
- The change needs context: The reported 24-point move signals a substantial repricing over 24 hours, but the summary provides no explanation for it.
- Timing matters: These figures reflect Polyguana’s Nov 3, 2026, 10:30 PM ET report, not necessarily subsequent market pricing.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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