Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 priced at 29.5% on Polymarket, up 6.0 points, on $141K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on its Oct. 29, 08:26 UTC crawl, lists the Ghalibaf attendance contract among its political moves, in a political/election category…
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Polymarket traders priced a contract on whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will attend a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 at 29.5%, up 6.0 probability points, with $141K traded.
According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract appeared among political moves in its political/election category during the Oct. 29, 08:26 UTC crawl. The higher price still leaves attendance as the less likely outcome in the market’s pricing.
What the snapshot establishes
PredictionBubbles measures moves over 24 hours and refreshes its rankings every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page identifies its venue-data refresh as 29 Oct 2026, 08:05 UTC, distinct from the crawl time.
The board ranks markets by the absolute size of their probability-point change, rather than their relative percentage gain. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine placement. Its stated universe covers 2,052 markets lasting longer than 14 days, with only open contracts that have a valid 24-hour comparison eligible for ranking.
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic announcement or other catalyst for the Ghalibaf contract’s rise. Nor does it provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or order-book depth. The move therefore establishes a change in pricing, not confirmation that a meeting or his attendance has been arranged.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction is clearer than cause: The 6.0-point increase shows traders assigning a higher probability to attendance, but the supplied reporting does not explain why.
The deadline defines the question: This contract concerns Ghalibaf’s attendance by December 31, 2026, rather than US–Iran diplomacy broadly.
Volume is only part of the context: The reported $141K traded does not, on its own, establish market depth or how much trading drove the latest move.
Timing matters: The figures describe a particular snapshot on a board refreshed every 15 minutes, not a fixed probability.