Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 priced at 8.4% on Polymarket, down 4.1 points, on $2.0M traded

Polymarket priced the prospect of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 at 8.4%, down 4.1 percentage points, with $2.0M traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 29, 2026, at 4:24 AM ET.

The figures show a lower market-implied probability of an agreement by the deadline. They do not establish that Iran has changed its position, and the supplied material identifies no fresh diplomatic development explaining the decline.

The repricing and its limits

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 29 Oct 2026, 08:05 UTC. However, its text does not display the Iran contract’s individual entry, so the contract-specific figures here come from the supplied headline.

PredictionBubbles ranks moves by their absolute size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. On that basis, the reported decline is a 4.1-point shift—not a 4.1% decrease. The $2.0M traded provides activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify the period covered by that volume figure.

What it means for prediction markets

• Low implied probability: The 8.4% price reflects a market assessment that an agreement by December 31 is unlikely, not impossible.
• No identified catalyst: The supplied reporting does not connect the decline to a new Iranian announcement or diplomatic event.
• Volume is not liquidity: The $2.0M traded figure alone does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the price change.
• The question concerns an agreement: The stated outcome is Iran agreeing to end enrichment by the deadline; the supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed settlement rules.