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Election wagers remain small beside Kalshi’s sports-heavy trading activity

Trefis reports about 1.4 billion dollars was traded on the 2026 midterms across United States platforms as of around October 23, roughly three days of Kalshi normal daily volume of over 500 million dollars, and that about 80 percent of Kalshi volume is sports. It notes history points to a post-election volume drop, with Polymarket volume falling 84 percent the morning after the 2024 election, while sports trading continues after the political spike fades.

Political prediction markets have attracted about $1.4 billion in trading on the 2026 midterms across United States platforms as of around October 23, according to Trefis. That total is roughly equivalent to three days of Kalshi’s normal trading volume.

Sports dominate the trading mix

Kalshi’s normal daily volume exceeds $500 million, Trefis reports. The comparison puts cumulative midterm activity across United States platforms alongside the daily turnover of a single exchange—not two equivalent measures of market activity.

About 80 percent of Kalshi’s volume comes from sports, according to Trefis. That concentration makes sports, rather than elections, the main source of activity on the platform.

An election surge can fade quickly

Trefis points to the aftermath of the 2024 election as a precedent for a sharp decline in political-event trading. Polymarket’s volume fell 84 percent the morning after that election.

That historical decline does not establish the size of any post-midterm slowdown. It does, however, illustrate the distinction Trefis draws between an election-driven spike and sports trading that continues after political activity subsides.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Scale needs context: The approximately $1.4 billion midterm total covers United States platforms through around October 23; the more than $500 million daily benchmark applies to Kalshi.
  • The activity mix matters: With sports accounting for about 80 percent of Kalshi volume, election trading alone offers a limited picture of the platform’s overall activity.
  • Post-election volume is a key watchpoint: Polymarket’s 84 percent decline the morning after the 2024 election provides a historical comparison, not a forecast for the 2026 midterms.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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