Trading volume for midterm election betting surpasses 1.4 billion dollars

Prediction markets tied to the 2026 midterms have generated more than 1.4 billion dollars in trading volume, according to a CNN analysis reported by Yogonet. The figures put market-based election forecasting under scrutiny alongside the growth in trading activity.

Trading concentrated at Kalshi

Kalshi accounted for nearly 1.1 billion dollars of the total, according to the analysis cited by Yogonet. That places it well ahead of the other platforms identified in the reporting.

Polymarket recorded more than 340 million dollars across its US and offshore platforms. ForecastEx registered more than 6.4 million dollars.

Forecasting credibility at stake

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour characterized the midterms as a test of market-based political forecasting, Yogonet reported. His assessment draws attention to whether the markets’ signals will prove reliable, rather than simply how much trading they attract.

The supplied figures establish the scale of activity but do not include individual contract prices or forecasts for specific races. They therefore offer a measure of trading volume, not evidence of forecasting accuracy.

What it means for prediction markets

• Volume and accuracy are separate measures. More than 1.4 billion dollars in trading does not, by itself, establish that election forecasts are reliable.
• Kalshi leads the reported activity. Its nearly 1.1 billion dollars accounts for most of the volume identified in the analysis.
• Platform comparisons require care. Polymarket’s reported total combines its US and offshore platforms.
• The forecasting test remains distinct. Assessing credibility requires comparing market forecasts with outcomes; the supplied reporting does not provide that comparison.