Hamilton gains ground as Mexican Grand Prix market shifts sharply
Kimi Antonelli fell 22 points to 12 percent and Max Verstappen slid 12 points to 14 percent in the same market. Lando Norris sits at 3 percent, down 36 points on the week.
Lewis Hamilton’s implied probability of winning the Mexican Grand Prix reached 34 percent, a gain of 28 percentage points on the day, according to Probable Times.
The update, published Nov 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, also showed declines for Kimi Antonelli, Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
Rivals lose market support
Antonelli dropped 22 percentage points to 12 percent in the same market, according to Probable Times. Verstappen fell 12 percentage points to 14 percent, leaving him above Antonelli but below Hamilton.
Norris stood at 3 percent after losing 36 percentage points over the week. That weekly comparison differs from the explicitly daily change reported for Hamilton.
What the moves establish
The figures put Hamilton ahead of the other three drivers named in the update. They do not establish his position against the full field, because prices for other drivers were not supplied.
The summary provides no explanation for the repricing. It therefore does not establish whether the moves reflected new race information or changes in market participation.
What it means for prediction markets
- Hamilton’s 28-percentage-point daily rise marks a substantial reassessment, although a 34 percent implied probability remains below an even chance.
- Verstappen and Antonelli were priced at 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively; both lost ground as Hamilton advanced.
- Norris’s 36-percentage-point weekly decline should not be treated as a same-day comparison with Hamilton’s move.
- Without information on trading activity or the drivers behind the changes, the reported prices alone cannot establish how durable the repricing may be.
Sources & attribution
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