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Kylian Mbappé’s contract to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or was priced at a 16.7% market-implied probability on Polymarket, up 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours, with $6.5M traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ sports board, the contract ranked among the category’s largest upward moves.
The snapshot, published Oct 25, 2026 · 2:09 AM ET, reflects traders’ pricing rather than a bookmaker’s assessment. The supplied material does not identify news or a sporting development behind the increase.
A sharp move, distinct from volume
PredictionBubbles ranks movers by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. Its volume rankings are separate: the $6.5M figure represents total traded volume, not necessarily money exchanged during the period in which Mbappé’s probability rose.
The board’s most-traded sports contract at its latest refresh concerned whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship, with $35.2M traded on Polymarket. That distinction matters: a contract’s price movement and its accumulated trading activity measure different things.
A periodically refreshed snapshot
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports coverage includes 538 open markets—218 from Kalshi and 320 from Polymarket. The embedded display features the 300 largest by volume, while the full board covers all 538.
The service refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. PredictionBubbles displays exchange-published prices and does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts.
What it means for prediction markets
The move is in percentage points: Mbappé’s 9.5-point increase describes a change in implied probability, not a 9.5% relative gain.
Volume is not directional evidence: The $6.5M total does not establish how much trading drove the latest rise or explain its cause.
Timing matters: A board updated every 15 minutes may differ from the exchange price between refreshes.
Cross-venue comparisons require care: PredictionBubbles notes that related contracts can have different wording and resolution rules.