Kansas markets favor Hamilton as governor pricing diverges from final poll
Action Network reports Hamilton opens Election Day as the favourite against Roger Marshall after Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the seat to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, with the final New York Times and Siena poll putting Hamilton ahead 49 to 44. In the Kansas governor race on the same board, Ty Masterson trades at 65 cents on Polymarket and 66 cents on Kalshi even though the final Times and Siena poll had Cindy Holscher ahead 48 to 47.
According to Action Network, Adam Hamilton opened Election Day as the favorite against Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race. Hamilton traded at 64 cents on Polymarket and 63 cents on Kalshi in the report published Nov 3, 2026, at 2:15 PM ET.
Senate pricing aligns with final signals
The market advantage followed Sabato's Crystal Ball moving the seat to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, according to Action Network.
The final New York Times and Siena poll also favored Hamilton, putting him ahead 49 to 44. Both exchanges therefore pointed in the same direction as the final poll and rating, with Hamilton’s price differing by just one cent between platforms.
Governor market points the other way
The Kansas governor race presented a different relationship between polling and market pricing. On the same board, Ty Masterson traded at 65 cents on Polymarket and 66 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network.
Yet the final Times and Siena poll placed Cindy Holscher ahead 48 to 47. While the two exchanges were again only one cent apart, their favored candidate was not the polling leader.
What it means for prediction markets
- Senate signals align: Hamilton’s market lead coincided with a 49-to-44 polling advantage and the final Leans Democratic rating.
- Governor signals diverge: Masterson’s higher market prices contrasted with Holscher’s 48-to-47 lead in the final poll.
- Cross-platform differences were small: Each race showed a one-cent gap between Polymarket and Kalshi. Those prices reflect market expectations, not confirmed election outcomes.
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