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Kalshi claims broad midterm forecasting success in post-election review

Kalshi said traders on its platform were correct on 479 of 487 midterm predictions, and that the calls were correct even prior to any votes being cast. The figures were reported on November 5 in a post-election review of prediction market accuracy.

Kalshi said its traders correctly predicted 479 of 487 midterm outcomes, according to NewsBetting’s post-election review of prediction-market accuracy.

The platform also said those forecasts were correct before any votes had been cast—not simply before the results became available.

A platform-reported accuracy tally

NewsBetting reported the figures on November 5, 2026, in an item published at 5:15 AM ET. The tally represents Kalshi’s account of its traders’ performance.

The supplied summary does not explain how a prediction was classified as correct or identify the forecast snapshot used for the comparison. Those details would be needed to assess the claim beyond the aggregate tally.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing matters: Kalshi’s claim concerns forecasts made before voting began, a different benchmark from forecasts made before votes were counted.
  • The measurement remains important: The reported 479-of-487 result offers an accuracy headline, but the supplied material does not establish how the calls were selected or scored.
KalshiElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    NewsBetting
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