Kalshi temperature odds shift sharply toward November 5’s 72–73 degree range

Kalshi’s November 5 maximum-temperature market saw a sharp move toward the 72–73 degree band, which reached 72% after gaining 64 percentage points in 24 hours, according to the ContractTax board.

Temperature bands move in opposite directions

The 72–73 degree contract appeared among the board’s biggest gainers, with 21,881 contracts traded. The supplied update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 11:54 AM ET.

Meanwhile, the below-70 degree band fell 54 percentage points to 1%. The two moves show a substantial repricing away from the lower-temperature outcome and toward the 72–73 degree range.

The supplied material does not identify the location, provide weather observations or explain what drove the changes. It also does not give prices for the remaining temperature bands, limiting a full assessment of the market’s distribution.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 72–73 degree band’s 72% price reflects market expectations, not a confirmed maximum-temperature reading.
• The 21,881 contracts traded provide activity context for the rising band, but the supplied material does not establish liquidity or the number of traders involved.
• Without the location, settlement criteria and other band prices, readers cannot fully evaluate the forecast implied by this market.