Senate forecasts split sharply as Kalshi favors Democrats over historical model

Two days before the midterms, Kalshi prices imply a 71 percent chance of a Democratic Senate majority, compared with 40 percent from a gov.house model based only on past election results, according to WalletInvestor.

The historical model’s median outcome is 50 seats. Its majority probability sits 31 percentage points below Kalshi’s, creating a substantial divide between market pricing and an assessment drawn exclusively from election history.

State-level differences drive the Senate divide

WalletInvestor places the Senate forecast gap across six states. The largest reported difference is in Alaska, at 59 points, followed by Ohio and Kansas, at 43 points each. North Carolina’s gap is 37 points.

Those figures identify where the two approaches diverge most sharply, but the supplied summary does not give individual state probabilities or name the other two states. It therefore does not establish the full state-by-state path behind either Senate forecast.

House forecasts are closer

The House comparison is much tighter: market pricing is about 93 percent, against about 90 percent from the historical approach, according to WalletInvestor. That contrasts with the pronounced disagreement over the Senate.

The comparison, published Nov 2, 2026 at 12:15 AM ET, captures two different forecasting approaches near the election. The supplied material does not explain what accounts for the Senate gap, so the figures alone cannot establish which forecast is better calibrated.

What it means for prediction markets

• Senate pricing reflects a materially different outlook: Kalshi’s 71 percent Democratic-majority probability exceeds the history-only model’s 40 percent by 31 percentage points.
• The largest state gaps deserve attention: Alaska, Ohio, Kansas and North Carolina show the biggest reported differences, though the summary does not provide their underlying probabilities.
• The disagreement is not uniform across chambers: The House forecasts are separated by about 3 percentage points, far less than the Senate forecasts.