Terminal
Infiniti Feed

December Fed hike odds lead on Kalshi in cross-market comparison

PredictionMarketPicks reports that as of 10:00 AM ET on November 5, Kalshi prices a hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting at 79 percent, with a 25 basis point hike at 77 percent and a hold at 24 percent. Polymarket prices the 25 basis point hike at 75.5 percent, a 1.5 point gap between the venues.

Prediction markets favored a Federal Reserve rate increase at the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Its November 5 snapshot put Kalshi’s probability of a hike at 79 percent as of 10:00 AM ET.

Comparing the same outcome

For a 25 basis point increase, Kalshi showed 77 percent, compared with 75.5 percent on Polymarket. That places Kalshi 1.5 percentage points higher for the same-sized move.

The distinction matters: the reported 1.5-point difference compares the two venues’ pricing for a 25 basis point hike, rather than Kalshi’s broader 79 percent hike figure with Polymarket’s 75.5 percent reading.

Hold pricing adds context

Kalshi also priced a hold at 24 percent, according to PredictionMarketPicks. The report was published on November 5, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET; the quoted prices reflect the earlier 10:00 AM ET snapshot.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both venues’ reported 25 basis point hike probabilities favored an increase, with Kalshi showing the higher reading.
  • Cross-market comparisons should distinguish the specific 25 basis point outcome from the broader hike figure.
  • The supplied summary does not include contract terms or explain how Kalshi’s hike and hold probabilities relate, limiting conclusions about their combined pricing.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionMarketPicks
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionMarketPicks”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related