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Kalshi weather bets on Philadelphia temperatures diverge from forecast models

On Kalshi's daily high temperature market for Philadelphia, traders favor the 61 to 62 degree band at 73 cents, while forecast model runs lean toward 60 degrees or below at 89 percent and give the traders' pick only 10 percent, the largest trader-forecast gap among the cities tracked today.

Philadelphia pricing diverges from forecasts

Kalshi traders favor a daily high of 61 to 62 degrees in Philadelphia, pricing that temperature band at 73 cents, according to Weather Markets. Forecast model runs assign the same outcome a 10 percent probability.

The figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET. Philadelphia showed the largest gap between trader pricing and forecasts among the cities tracked that day, according to Weather Markets.

Models favor a lower high

The forecast runs instead lean toward a daily high of 60 degrees or below, assigning that outcome an 89 percent probability. That places the models’ preferred outcome below the band favored by traders.

The available summary does not explain what is driving the divergence. It also does not provide the market price for 60 degrees or below, limiting a comparison of pricing across the two outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A pronounced disagreement: The 61 to 62 degree band trades at 73 cents despite receiving only 10 percent probability from the forecast runs.
  • A different leading outcome: Models assign 89 percent probability to 60 degrees or below, rather than the traders’ preferred band.
  • Incomplete pricing context: Without a quoted price for the lower-temperature outcome, the supplied figures show the central disagreement but not the full market distribution.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Weather Markets
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Weather Markets”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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