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Kalshi midterm election volume nears $1.1 billion with House Democrats heavily favored

More than 1.4 billion dollars has traded across prediction markets tied to the November 3 midterm elections, with Kalshi alone accounting for nearly 1.1 billion dollars. Kalshi prices Democrats at 91 percent to control the House and 67 percent to control the Senate.

Midterm trading tops $1.4 billion

Trading volume across prediction markets linked to the November 3 midterm elections has exceeded $1.4 billion, according to FinanceFeeds in its Oct 31, 2026 report published at 8:00 AM ET.

Kalshi accounts for nearly $1.1 billion of that total, placing the platform at the center of the reported election-market activity.

Democrats favored in both chambers

Kalshi’s prices imply a 91 percent probability that Democrats will control the House, according to FinanceFeeds. That makes House control the stronger of the two Democratic prospects reflected in the reported prices.

For the Senate, Kalshi assigns Democrats a 67 percent probability of control. Both markets favor Democrats, but the Senate pricing indicates substantially more uncertainty than the House pricing.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Different levels of confidence: The House and Senate contracts point in the same direction, but their probabilities should not be treated as equivalent signals.
  • Volume is not certainty: The reported trading totals measure market activity, not the reliability of the election forecasts.
  • A dated snapshot: The probabilities reflect the prices reported on Oct 31, 2026, rather than settled outcomes for the November 3 elections.
KalshiSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    FinanceFeedsfinancefeeds.com
    Publisher
    https://financefeeds.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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