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Kalshi traders mark down odds of November inflation exceeding 4.0 percent

PredictionMarketPicks reports its November 4, 2:51 a.m. EST Kalshi leaderboard priced the contract on CPI inflation running above 4.0 percent for the year ending in November 2026 at 20 cents, down 7 cents in 24 hours, on 1,466 contracts traded. It was the second-biggest mover on the board's economics list, behind the federal funds rate contract.

A Kalshi contract tied to CPI inflation exceeding 4.0 percent for the year ending in November 2026 fell to 20 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Its price declined 7 cents over 24 hours.

Inflation contract ranks second among economic movers

PredictionMarketPicks recorded the price in its November 4, 2026 leaderboard at 2:51 a.m. EST. The reported trading volume was 1,466 contracts.

The inflation contract was the second-biggest mover on the leaderboard’s economics list. Only the federal funds rate contract ranked ahead of it, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

The update, published on Nov 4, 2026 at 3:15 AM ET, provides a snapshot of market pricing rather than an inflation reading. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the decline or give the federal funds rate contract’s price change.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 7-cent decline signals a lower market-implied likelihood of CPI inflation finishing above the contract’s 4.0 percent threshold for the year ending in November 2026.
  • The 1,466 contracts traded provide activity context, but the summary offers no liquidity or order-book information with which to assess the move’s depth.
  • Its second-place ranking shows the inflation contract stood out within that economics leaderboard; it does not establish what drove the repricing.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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