Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31 priced at 12.5% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $183K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, fresh on its Oct. 26, 22:06 UTC snapshot, lists the Powell departure contract among the day's upward moves, in a finance category…
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Jerome Powell’s departure from the Fed Board by December 31 was priced at 12.5% on Polymarket, an increase of 3.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $183K traded, according to the supplied market summary.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the finance category’s upward movers in its Oct. 26, 2026, 22:06 UTC snapshot. The higher price still leaves departure as the less likely outcome in the market’s assessment.
What the move captures
PredictionBubbles compiles prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes. Its movers board orders contracts by the magnitude of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than their relative percentage gains or trading volume.
The snapshot covered 1,986 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Eligibility also requires an open contract and a valid price comparison from 24 hours earlier; resolved contracts and those without a sufficient history are excluded, according to PredictionBubbles.
Limits of the signal
The supplied material identifies no announcement or other catalyst for the Powell repricing. It also does not provide the contract’s detailed resolution conditions or order-book depth. The $183K trading figure therefore supplies context, but cannot by itself establish how much liquidity supported the move.
The distinction in the contract’s subject matters: the stated question concerns Powell leaving the Fed Board, not simply a change in his chairmanship. Without the settlement rules, readers should avoid treating those as interchangeable outcomes.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level tell different stories: the 3.5-point increase indicates a higher market-implied probability, while the 12.5% price still places departure well below an even chance.
A ranking is not confirmation: inclusion among upward movers records a price change, not independent evidence that Powell will leave.
Settlement terms remain essential: the December 31 deadline and the precise definition of departure govern the contract; those detailed rules were not supplied.