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Vance tops Kalshi’s Republican nomination field as trading reaches $1 million

Marco Rubio is second at 22 cents and Ron DeSantis third at 19 cents among 46 outcomes in the November 5 snapshot. The market is among the most traded non-sports markets on the board.

J.D. Vance led Kalshi’s market for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee at 32 cents in the November 5 snapshot, according to DeFi Rate. The market recorded 1 million dollars in trading over 24 hours.

Rubio and DeSantis follow

Marco Rubio ranked second at 22 cents, while Ron DeSantis was third at 19 cents, according to DeFi Rate. That put Vance 10 cents ahead of Rubio and 13 cents ahead of DeSantis.

The market offered 46 outcomes. The reported prices placed Vance at the front of that field, but well below a majority-implied probability.

Trading activity draws attention

DeFi Rate identified the nomination contract as one of the board’s most traded non-sports markets. Its report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET.

The figures provide a snapshot of pricing and activity, rather than evidence of a trend. The supplied reporting includes no earlier prices or trading totals against which to measure changes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A leader, not a majority favorite: Vance’s 32-cent price corresponds to a market-implied probability of approximately 32%, rather than a forecast that he is more likely than not to win.
  • The nearest challengers remain distinct: Rubio’s 22-cent price and DeSantis’s 19-cent price leave a 3-cent gap between second and third.
  • Volume does not establish direction: The 1 million dollars traded in 24 hours signals activity, but the snapshot alone does not show whether confidence in any candidate rose or fell.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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