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Israel x Iran ceasefire through November 30 priced at 65.5% on Polymarket

Up 10.5 points on $581K traded, among the day's largest upward moves.

Polymarket’s contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire will continue through November 30 was priced at 65.5%, up 10.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $581K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the November-dated contract ranked among the day’s largest upward moves.

A stronger market assessment

The move represents a higher market-implied probability of the ceasefire lasting through the contract’s deadline. It does not, on its own, establish that conditions supporting the ceasefire have improved. The supplied material identifies no diplomatic announcement or other specific event behind the repricing.

The figures accompanied an update published on Oct 17, 2026, at 1:09 PM ET. PredictionBubbles’ underlying movers page says its venue-price snapshot was taken on 17 Oct 2026, at 16:40 UTC, with data refreshed every 15 minutes.

How the ranking works

According to PredictionBubbles, the scanner compares prices across Polymarket and Kalshi, ranking changes over 24 hours in probability points rather than relative percentages. Its coverage spans 1,984 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that can move sharply as settlement approaches.

Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking, so the ceasefire contract’s upward placement reflects the size of its price change—not its $581K trading figure.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The deadline matters: The 65.5% price concerns the ceasefire continuing through November 30, not an indefinite cessation of hostilities.
  • The change is in points: The 10.5-point increase measures a shift in implied probability, not a 10.5% relative gain.
  • Trading volume is context, not proof: The $581K figure does not by itself establish order-book depth or explain the move.
  • The catalyst remains unreported: The available material supports a repricing story, but not a conclusion about which developments drove traders’ reassessment.
GeopoliticsPolymarketPredictionMarkets

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/

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