Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 95.3% on Polymarket, down 1.5 points, on $4.1M traded

Polymarket traders priced the Israel–Iran ceasefire continuing through October 31 at 95.3%, down 1.5 percentage points, with $4.1M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published October 29, 2026, at 9:09 PM ET.

The price still indicates a strong market expectation that the ceasefire will last through the stated deadline. The decline represents a modest weakening of that expectation, rather than a reversal in the market’s prevailing view.

A price move without a verified catalyst

The accompanying summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. The supplied material does not establish a fresh development behind the decline or provide reporting that independently verifies conditions surrounding the ceasefire.

According to predictionbubbles.net, its politics dashboard refreshes every 15 minutes and measures probability changes over the preceding 24 hours. The supplied page describes that methodology but does not display the specific ceasefire contract, limiting independent confirmation of the headline figures from the source excerpt.

What it means for prediction markets

• High confidence is not certainty: The 95.3% price reflects traders’ expectations, not confirmation that the ceasefire will continue through October 31.
• Volume and movement are distinct: The $4.1M figure is total traded volume; it does not show how much trading accompanied the 1.5-point decline.
• Resolution terms remain important: The supplied material does not include the contract’s exact settlement criteria, so it cannot establish what developments would determine the outcome.