Green Bay wins priced at 57.0% on Kalshi, down 8.0 points, on $5.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' sports board, on its Oct. 30, 01:25 UTC crawl at 561 open markets with $772.3M traded — the same crawl as the Oct. 29 2124 edition, disclosed — lists…
Green Bay’s win contract on Kalshi stood at a market-implied probability of 57.0%, down 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $5.3M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The price remained above 50% despite the decline.
Snapshot timing matters
The report, published Oct 29, 2026 · 9:39 PM ET, references PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 30, 01:25 UTC crawl, which covered 561 open markets and $772.3M traded. The summary explicitly identifies it as the same crawl used for the Oct. 29 2124 edition, rather than a new observation.
The supplied sports-page text contains a different board count: 590 markets, comprising 246 from Kalshi and 344 from Polymarket. Those figures should be kept separate from the crawl underlying the Green Bay report; the material does not reconcile the two snapshots.
What the board measures
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports feed refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. Its probability-change measure covers the preceding 24 hours, and its volume figure represents total trading reported by the venue—not necessarily activity during that same window.
The supplied material does not identify Green Bay’s opponent, the fixture date or a reason for the repricing. PredictionBubbles describes lineups, injuries, form and live scores as general influences on sports contracts, but provides no evidence tying any of those factors to this move.
What it means for prediction markets
- The signal is a lower implied win probability: Green Bay was priced at 57.0% after an 8.0-point decline, but the material does not establish what drove the change.
- Volume and movement measure different things: The $5.3M total does not show how much traded during the decline or how much liquidity was available at the quoted price.
- A repeated crawl is not fresh confirmation: Reuse of the Oct. 30, 01:25 UTC snapshot does not demonstrate that the price persisted afterward.
- Cross-venue comparisons need contract checks: PredictionBubbles cautions that related Kalshi and Polymarket questions can differ in wording and resolution rules.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/sports/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms priced at 64.0% on Kalshi, up 8.0 points, on $1.1M traded
- Panthers vs. Packers priced at 52.5% on Polymarket, up 17.0 points, on $698K traded
- 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027 priced at 11.6% on Polymarket, up 0.2 points, on $228K traded
- Full Game: Over 233.5 points scored priced at 52.0% on Kalshi, up 7.0 points, on $1.1M traded
- Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, up 1.5 points, on $359K traded
- Bruins vs. Blues priced at 64.5% on Polymarket, up 15.0 points, on $384K traded