Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 priced at 41.0% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $1.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the December 31 Israel-Iran ceasefire contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category alongside the…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 was priced at 41.0%, up 3.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $1.3M traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers listing. The increase put the contract among the board’s upward moves in its political/election category.
The figures accompanied the Oct 27, 2026 · 9:54 AM ET update. PredictionBubbles says its underlying venue-price snapshot was taken on 27 Oct 2026 at 13:34 UTC, with the board refreshed every 15 minutes.
A higher price, but still below even odds
The repricing indicates that traders assigned a higher probability to the ceasefire continuing through the contract’s December 31 deadline than they had a day earlier. At 41.0%, however, that outcome remained below even odds.
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic development, official announcement or other specific catalyst for the increase. The price change therefore establishes a shift in market expectations, not evidence of a new agreement or a change in conditions on the ground.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares Polymarket and Kalshi contracts using their absolute probability-point changes over 24 hours. Its snapshot covered 2,009 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures and contracts without a valid day-old price comparison.
Trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking. The supplied headline reports $1.3M traded for the ceasefire contract without specifying that figure’s measurement period; it should not be treated as proof that all of that activity occurred during the 24-hour price move.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level are different signals: the 3.5-point increase shows stronger pricing for ceasefire continuity, while 41.0% still places it below even odds.
The catalyst remains unverified: the supplied reporting does not connect the move to a specific geopolitical event.
Volume is not liquidity: the $1.3M traded figure does not establish current order-book depth or explain what drove the repricing.
The figures are a snapshot: the board updates every 15 minutes, so the reported probability is not a fixed assessment through December 31.